A Reuters headline caught my eye this morning: "Automakers rush to finish plans for Congress". I had headlines like that in front of my burning eyes after a college all-nighters left me frantic to finish papers. The headline in front of me read: "Stupid for Not Planning Your Time!". I managed to get pretty good grades anyhow, but the auto industry? Do they have good grades? Do they have the capability of pulling together company saving plans with all nighters this late in the game?
Gee whiz, the Big Three have fleets that get terrible gas mileage. They have plans for fuel efficient vehicles that might make it out the door in 2010. They speak in terms of satisfying demand when discussing Sport Utility Vehicles. Maybe they are the only car companies foolish enough to hitch their futures to fuel inefficient vehicles.
I like planning. Planning means using the crystal ball that research into the past and guessing at the future gives us. Some plans are mathematical model heavy; meaning they are obscure. Some plans are light on math; meaning that they are indefinite.
The best plans are readable, definite, supported (but not obscured by) math and provide one or more outcomes that can be believed. Such good plans are believable because of the timely research that went into them.
Even carefully thought out plans miss things that they should include. The financial engineers on Wall St. developed plans that did not include the idea that housing prices might fall. In simple words, their planning crystal ball did not include research into past housing bubbles. Now, we all suffer from their poor planning.
I sincerely hope the Big Three make it. Maybe they will become the Big Two. Or, maybe The Only One. Lack of timely planning, such as the Big Three are exhibiting now, seems to ensure that the auto companies will become the Infinitesimal Zero
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